The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing key factors affecting the governance of Iraq's sports policy-making system and developing future scenarios up to the 2035 horizon. The research methodology was futures studies with a mixed (documentary and field) approach, using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software for factor analysis and scenario development. The statistical population included 20 experts in sports management (15 males and 5 females) selected through purposive and snowball sampling methods. Data collection instruments consisted of documentary review of 25 sources and semi-structured interviews. Findings revealed that Iraq's sports governance system faces relative instability (stability score of 75.71%) and 15 key drivers were identified across economic, political, social, technological, and environmental dimensions. Scenario analysis resulted in five consistent scenarios with scores ranging from 66 to 75, including: Scenario 1 (Status Quo Maintenance), Scenario 2 (Systematic Corruption), Scenario 3 (Highest Score with Highest Corruption), Scenario 4 (Comprehensive Crisis), and Scenario 5 (Resistance and Unity Paradox). Results indicated that economic sanctions, administrative corruption, and ethnic issues are among the most important factors influencing the future of Iraq's sports governance, and investment in technology, strengthening sports diplomacy, and equitable distribution of resources can guide the system toward favorable scenarios.